Association between predator species richness and human hantavirus infection emergence in Brazil

Abstract

Hantavirus infection is a rodent-borne disease (RBD) transmitted by urine or feces (as the natural reservoirs) with an annual estimated worldwide incidence of ~150,000 cases. Previous ecological studies suggested that higher species richness of rodents could decrease the risk of RBDs in humans, because the regulatory pressure of predators could reduce contact among rodents, and between humans and rodents. Using surveillance data, we investigated the association of predator species richness with hantavirus infection emergence in 5562 Brazilian inland municipalities between 2007 and 2017. Multivariable logistic regression models were used for the analyses. Diurnal and non-diurnal predator species were independent explanatory variables in the models. Rodent species richness and demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors were used as covariates. During the study period, 1084 cases were reported in 429 municipalities. The results showed a reverse-U-shaped association between diurnal predator species richness and hantavirus infection emergence (odds ratio [OR] 0.463, 0.688, and 0.553 for the first [lowest], third, and fourth [highest] quartiles, respectively, using the second quartile as a reference), while higher non-diurnal predator species richness tended to be associated with higher emergence risk (OR 0.134, 1.065, and 2.708 for the first, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively). The difference in these associations illustrates the complexity of the effects of predator species richness on human RBDs, which require further investigation in follow-up studies. The results showed a close link between environmental factors and public health, emphasizing that the One Health concept should be employed to understand the dynamics of RBDs.