Assessment study about the risk of Wilks’ formula for uncertainty quantification of design extension condition scenarios in prototype Gen-IV sodium fast reactor

Abstract

ABSTRACT Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification using Wilks’ formula and Monte Carlo for Unprotected Loss of Flow (ULOF) and Unprotected Transient OverPower (UTOP) accidents of prototype Gen-IV sodium-cooled fast reactor were performed. Multi-dimensional analysis for reactor safety for liquid metal reactors code calculations were conducted while simultaneously varying the values of all uncertain parameters according to their distribution using parallel computing platform integrated for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to obtain uncertainty bands for Figures of Merit (FOM) – coolant, fuel centerline, and cladding temperature at the hottest fuel rod. To specify the uncertainty range of the parameters for each accident scenario, literature survey and expert judgments were consulted. By the sensitivity analysis, the importance ranking of 25 parameters in model identification and ranking table based on phenomena identification and ranking table was identified. Through Monte Carlo calculation, 95% upper limit and 95% confidence level were obtained, and about 2% and 5% under-prediction (risk) of FOM of ULOF and UTOP accidents using Wilks’ formula were confirmed, respectively.