Assessment on Agricultural Drought Vulnerability and Spatial Heterogeneity Study in China.

Abstract

Reducing drought vulnerability is a basis to achieve sustainable development in agriculture. The study focuses on agricultural drought vulnerability in China by selecting 12 indicators from two aspects: drought sensitivity and resilience to drought. In this study, the degree of agricultural drought vulnerability in China has been evaluated by entropy weight method and weighted comprehensive scoring method. The influencing factors have also been analyzed by a contribution model. The results show that: (1) From 1978 to 2018, agricultural drought vulnerability showed a decreasing trend in China with more less vulnerable to mildly vulnerable cities, and less highly vulnerable cities. At the same time, there is a trend where highly vulnerable cities have been converted to mildly vulnerable cities, whereas mildly vulnerable cities have been converted to less vulnerable cities. (2) This paper analyzes the influencing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability by dividing China into six geographic regions. It reveals that the contribution rate of resilience index is over 50% in the central, southern, and eastern parts of China, where agricultural drought vulnerability is relatively low. However, the contribution rate of sensitivity is 75% in the Southwest and Northwest region, where the agricultural drought vulnerability is relatively high. Among influencing factors, the multiple-crop index, the proportion of the rural population and the forest coverage rate have higher contribution rate. This study carries reference significance for understanding the vulnerability of agricultural drought in China and it provides measures for drought prevention and mitigation.