Abstract
Hydrological modeling is an important tool that can be used to assess water resources’ availability and sustainability that are necessary for food security and ecological health of coastal regions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on water balance components (WBCs) of the Heeia coastal wetland. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture the unique characteristics of the Hawaiian Islands, including its volcanic soil’s nature and high initial infiltration rates. We used the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty of WBCs under different climate change scenarios. Results of the statistical analysis of daily streamflow simulations showed that the model performance was within the generally acceptable criteria. Under future climate scenarios, rainfall change was the determinant factor most negatively impacting WBCs. Recharge and baseflow components had the highest sensitivity to the combined effects of land use and climate changes, especially during dry season. The uncertainty analysis indicated that the streamflow is projected to slightly increase by the middle of 21st century, but expected to decline by 40% during the late 21st century of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5.
Highlights
Land-use change (LUC) and climate change (CC) are considered the main determinant factors for the changes of water balance components, nutrient fluxes, and thermal energy of a watershed.These factors are expected to affect each other through the interaction of various physical, chemical, and biological processes [1,2]
In the Hawaiian Islands, fossil evidence indicated that the combined interactions among CC, LUC, and biological invasions substantially aggravated the direct impacts of CC [3]
We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Heeia watershed and used the model to assess the impacts of CC and LUC on the water balance components (WBCs) in a wetland within the watershed
Summary
Land-use change (LUC) and climate change (CC) are considered the main determinant factors for the changes of water balance components, nutrient fluxes, and thermal energy of a watershed These factors are expected to affect each other through the interaction of various physical, chemical, and biological processes [1,2]. Examples of the human activities that aggravate the CC impacts include the conversion of wetlands into urban land, intensive agriculture practices, and the excessive use of fossil fuels Consequences of these interactions are reflected in the implication of regional projects, such as plans for coastal wetland restoration or for sustainable development of water resources [4,5,6,7,8].
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