Assessment of water policies contributions for sustainable water resources management under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Economic development alongside unsustained population growth are among the leading factors of hydrological depletion. Facing climate change impacts, long-term policy planning via scenario analysis is an essential tool to ensure water security. This investigation utilized an approach based on numerical model experiments and sustainability indexes to assess the impact of public policies for water resources management over a long-term horizon. Streamflow projections (2011–2099) from the hydrological model MHD-INPE (Distributed Hydrological Model – National Institute for Space Research) were evaluated as means to investigate water supply scenarios. Monthly flows were accounted into 30-year moving average intervals. Sustainability Indexes were then calculated to evaluate the performance of a water system as IPCC’s Specific Warming Levels were reached. In this study, the contribution of public policies for water resources sustainability under climate change scenarios in the Paraíba do Sul river basin, which supports the water supply of the two major Brazilian metropolitan areas, were analyzed. Results indicated that the system will operate with more stress facing climate change impacts. Finally, the assessment of water availability scenarios is concluded to benefit decision-makers in incorporating adaptation measures, identifying uncertainties, and foreseeing potential effects of climate change.