Assessment of urbanization impact on cultural heritage based on a risk-based cumulative impact assessment method

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Urbanization is inevitable in both developing and developed countries. However, this growth and transformation of the urban area can pose a significant threat to urban cultural heritage, which is a sensitive component of the urban environment. As cities modernize and change, a risk of irreparable loss of cultural heritage exists. Therefore, taking steps to protect and preserve these sites for posterity is crucial. To better protect urban cultural heritage, decision-makers must rapidly assess the impact of urbanization on cultural heritage while maintaining a balance between cultural heritage preservation and urban growth. This study developed a risk-based cumulative impact assessment (CIA) method that integrates a set of quantifiable indicators to address these issues. This method generates standardized assessment results based on game theory and set pair analysis theory. In contrast to other CIA methods, this risk-based approach effectively manages scientific complexity and uncertainties, thus enhancing the quality of the assessment results. This method was applied to 21 classical gardens in Suzhou, China. The results show that Suzhou classical gardens are impacted by urbanization. This study confirmed that adopting a risk-based CIA method that considers the impact of adverse urbanization on cultural heritage sites is an efficient approach. Successful implementation of the proposed method can provide decision-making support for different types of cultural heritage in other areas.