Assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change in Mexico

Abstract

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 09:87-93 (1997) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr009087 Assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change in Mexico Lourdes Villers-Ruiz*, Irma Trejo-Vázquez Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apartado Postal 20850, 04510 México, D.F. México *E-mail: villers@servidor.unam.mx An assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Mexico to climate change is carried out on the basis of the scenarios projected by 3 climate models. A vegetation classification was performed according to 2 models, the Holdridge Life Zone Classification and the so-called Mexican Classification (a climate-vegetation classification based on typologies developed for Mexico). Projections of climate models were based on a doubled CO2 concentration condition. The models used were: the CCCM, which estimates an average increase in temperature for the country of 2.8°C and a decrease in annual precipitation of 7%; the GFDL-R30, which estimates an increase in both parameters by 3.2°C and 20% respectively; and a sensitivity model in which a homogeneous increase of 2°C in temperature and a 10% decrease in precipitation are applied throughout the country. In general, the cool temperate and warm temperate ecosystems were the most affected and tended to disappear under the conditions of the 3 scenarios. In contrast, the dry and very dry tropical forests and the warm thorn woodlands tended to occupy larger areas than at present, particularly under the conditions projected by the CCCM model. However, under the GFDL-derived scenario an increase in the distribution of moist and wet forests, which would be favoured by an increase in precipitation, was predicted. Vegetation · Mexico · Forest ecosystems · Climate change Full text in pdf format PreviousNextExport citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 09, No. 1-2. Publication date: December 29, 1997 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 1997 Inter-Research.