Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

In this study, an investigation has been made to study the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation at 45 districts of the Madhya Pradesh (MP), India over the period of 102years (1901–2002) on annual and seasonal basis. Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator test were used to detect monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time on annual and seasonal basis. The cumulative deviations and Pettit-Mann–Whitney test were applied to detect possible change points. Change in percentage was discussed in terms of percentage change over mean. To explore the spatial distribution of trends, linear regression value of each station was interpolated using ArcGIS 9.3 on seasonal and annual basis. Mean annual precipitation varied from 694mm (at Westnimar) to 1416mm (at Mandla). Maximum decrease in annual precipitation was found at Balaghat (−11.99%) and minimum at Shahdol (−8.52%) district. The most probable year of change was 1978 in annual precipitation. Change in percentage in mean of 1901–1978 over the mean of 1979–2002 showed the decrease in precipitation in almost all the stations. Again, the decrease in annual precipitation was −2.59% over the entire Madhya Pradesh in 102years. West MP showed more increase in annual precipitation than East MP during the period of 1901–1978. However, the East MP showed more decrease than west MP during the period of 1979–2002.