Assessment of the Myitnge River flow responses in Myanmar under changes in land use and climate

Abstract

Watershed hydrology changes are mostly influenced by changes in climate and land use and understanding of the interaction between these changes is required for the sustainable water management of water resources. In this study, an integrated approach of land-use modelling, downscaling climate data, and river flow simulation is carried out to detect hydrologic responses of the Myitnge River basin in Myanmar under land use and climate changes. A set of Landsat satellite images (2010, 2011, and 2017) are classified, and Land Change Modeller (LCM) module in the TerrSet model is used to simulate land-use maps for 2030 and 2050. The CanESM2 large-scale general circulation model (GCM) is used to project the near future (2020–2059) climate data. Then, future river flow changes are simulated using the SWAT hydrologic model under changing future climate and land-use conditions. The results of the study show that the annual mean river flow will slightly increase under future climate change, and the changes will be exaggerated when the land-use change occurred simultaneously. This study offers a perspective on the possible hydrologic alteration in the Myitnge River basin under future land use and climate conditions, which can be beneficial for formulating adaption strategies.