Abstract
ABSTRACT Coastal areas around the South China Sea are threatened by potential tsunamis triggered by large earthquakes in the Manila Trench. To quantitively assess the inundation probability caused by tsunamis is crucial for coastal disaster prevention and mitigation. This study focuses on the eastern coast of Hainan Island, which is located to the west of the Manila Trench and may directly face tsunami impact. More than one million tsunami scenarios are simulated considering the randomness of earthquake magnitude, epicenter location, and focal depth. The simulation of numerous tsunami scenarios is based on the unit source superposition method in deep water, which provides boundary conditions for the local model with high spatial resolution for nearshore wave propagation and inundation. Representative waves with different heights and periods are adopted as incident waves in the local model. By involving the joint probability density of incident wave height and period, the spatial distribution of inundation probability is given along the eastern coast of Hainan Island. This study provided an assessment method for the inundation probability, which can more comprehensively consider the uncertainty of earthquakes and provide a more reliable assessment result than that based on refined simulation of several typical scenarios.
Published Version
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