Abstract
The impacts of two factors on future regional-scale runoff were assessed: the external factor of climate change and the internal factor of a recently completed large-scale water resources project. A rainfall-runoff model was built (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) for the Geum River, where three weirs were recently constructed along the main stream. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios from the HadGEM3-RA RCM model were used to generate future climate scenarios, and daily runoff series were constructed based on the SWAT model. The indicators of the hydrologic alteration (IHA) program was used to carry out a quantitative assessment on the variability of runoff during two future periods (2011–2050, 2051–2100) compared to a reference period (1981–2006). Analyses of changes in the runoff characteristics of the lower Geum River showed that climate change is likely to lead to an increase of the future runoff ratio and that weirs contributed to an increase in the minimum discharge and a decrease in the maximum discharge. The influence of the weirs on the runoff characteristics of the Geum River basin was projected to be greater than that of climate change.
Highlights
People have inhabited places close to rivers or lakes to ensure water supply for several purposes, including as a source of water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes, a means of power generation and waste disposal, routes for navigation, and sites for recreation and spiritual activities [1,2]
This study focused on two factors to assess future runoff characteristics of the Geum River
The impacts of two factors on future runoff characteristics were assessed on a regional scale: the external factor of climate change and the internal factor of a large-scale water resources project
Summary
People have inhabited places close to rivers or lakes to ensure water supply for several purposes, including as a source of water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes, a means of power generation and waste disposal, routes for navigation, and sites for recreation and spiritual activities [1,2]. Multipurpose dams (weirs) were built to control flows in the four rivers; these dams were each 300–600 m long and 4–12 m in height, and were installed in dredged river sections: three in the Han River, eight in the Nakdong River, two in the Yeongsan River and three in the Geum River Because both climate change and water resources projects can affect a river’s runoff characteristics, this study considered both impacts, unlike previous studies that focused only on applying climate change scenarios to the analysis. This study included considerations of the impacts of both global climate change and hydraulic structures built to improve the availability of local water resources, to analyze the resulting changes in projected future runoff characteristics.
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