Assessment of the Impact of Migration Processes on Pricing in the Residential Real Estate Market in the Russian Federation

Abstract

The dynamics of the housing construction industry can be seen as an indicator of the level of social and economic development of the country. The attractiveness of residential real estate is largely determined by price availability for the population. However, it is important to consider demographic factors. Therefore, the study assessed the effects of migration, along with parameters such as salary dynamics, mortgage lending and construction volumes of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to justify the importance of migration dynamics to change the value of residential real estate. The subject of study is the existence of dependence of migration processes and pricing dynamics taking into account additional parameters of the country’s economy. The object of the study is pricing in the residential real estate market in Russia. Research methods are vector autoregression models (standard and Bayesian ones). Monthly data of official statistics for Russia for 2011–2021 as well as scientific articles and published studies of employees of the Bank of Russia were used as the information base. The initial hypothesis of the study is that the factor of migration significantly affects the final indicator of the cost of housing. The analysis made it possible to determine the importance of factors that have a sustainable long-term impact on the dynamics of prices in the residential real estate market.