Abstract
ABSTRACT This study seeks to characterise the effects of migration on the population development of Hong Kong where there has been rapid population transition due to extremely low fertility and uncertainties in migration flows. We explore actual historical trends during the period 2011–2021, and how these trends could shape the future demographic distribution if they persist. Using population census data, we estimate the net migration numbers in Hong Kong during the period 2011–2021, and develop population projections from 2026 to 2056 based on three alternative migration scenarios: (1) no net migration, (2) constant at the 2016–2021 level (negative growth), and (3) constant at the 2011–2016 level (positive growth but stable). Projected overall dependency ratios are also estimated under the three migration scenarios, as well as two retirement age scenarios: retiring at 65 years and 70 years. Our findings demonstrate that immigration would become an important and positive factor to slow down the process of population ageing to achieve a more sustainable development. The extension of the retirement age from 65 years to 70 years will certainly help to mitigate the ageing pressure in Hong Kong. We also provide implications of these projections for other Asian societies in similar situations.
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