Assessment of the Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in China.

Zhenhua Zhang,Jingxue Zhang,Yanchao Feng

doi:10.3390/ijerph182413307

Abstract

In this study, we propose an integrated econometric framework incorporating the difference-in-differences model, the propensity-score-matching difference-in-differences model, and the spatial difference-in-differences model to explore the effect of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on per capita carbon emission in China at the national, regional, and administrative levels. Contradictory results are supported under different econometric models, which highlight the importance and necessity of comprehensive analysis. Taking 285 prefecture-level and above cities as an example, the empirical results show that APPCAP has effectively reduced per capita carbon emission in China at the national level without the consideration of the spatial spillover effect. However, with the consideration of the spatial spillover effect, APPCAP has effectively and directly increased per capita carbon emission in local pilot cities at the national level, and reduced it among pilot cities via the spatial spillover effect, but the effects have become invalid in the non-pilot cities neighboring the pilot cities. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of the effects of APPCAP on per capita carbon emission are supported at the regional and administrative levels. Finally, some specific policy implications are provided for achieving the “win-win” situation of energy saving, emission reduction, and economic development.

Highlights

In the 21st century, accompanied by the excessive consumption of fossil energies and the ecological deterioration of air quality, the conflict between economic development and environmental protection has become a bottleneck for China’s sustainable development, that is, the extensive and high-speed economic development mode has lost its momentum and should be converted to high-quality development in the new era [1]
Based on the Equation (3), this study explored the direct and indirect effects of APPCAP on per capita carbon emission in China by adopting the SDID model under the squared inverse distance weight matrix; the corresponding results are reported in column
It can be found that the direct coefficients of treat × post are significantly positive, the spatial coefficients of WT,T D are significantly negative, and the spatial coefficients of WNT,T D are positive but insignificant in columns (1) and (2), indicating that the implementation of APPCAP increased per capita carbon emission in local pilot cities, but reduced per capita carbon emission among pilot cities via the spatial spillover effect, while the spatial spillover effect on reducing per capita carbon emission was not supported in the non-pilot cities neighboring the pilot cities

Summary

Introduction

In the 21st century, accompanied by the excessive consumption of fossil energies and the ecological deterioration of air quality, the conflict between economic development and environmental protection has become a bottleneck for China’s sustainable development, that is, the extensive and high-speed economic development mode has lost its momentum and should be converted to high-quality development in the new era [1]. To abate the severe air pollution and promote green development, the. State Council of China released the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (i.e., APPCAP) on 10 September 2013 [4]. Considered as the first comprehensive plan to control air pollution in China, the APPCAP contains a series of stringent measures, including discharge standards, monitoring plans, and accountability systems [5]. The APPCAP in China has gained enough attention in academia, and a basic consensus has been reached on its effectiveness in improving air quality, which provides a valuable insight into the pollution abatement effect of it, while few studies have paid attention to how this policy affects carbon emission [6]

Methods

Results

Conclusion