Assessment of the adaptation potential of grass-based dairy systems to climate change in Ireland—The maximised production scenario

Abstract

In order to evaluate adaptation within dairy production systems in Ireland with regard to the effects of global atmospheric change, it was necessary to complement research on primary production (grass yield) with investigation of the production system as a whole. There has been little work evaluating climate change impact on low-cost, grass-based dairy production which is currently regarded as the most profitable form of agricultural production system operating in Ireland, and is also successfully employed elsewhere in the world. A system simulator, Dairy_sim, was used to evaluate the long-term (2080) impacts of global climate change on low-cost, grass-based dairying in Ireland assuming a maximised production scenario (producing the greatest output of milk on a given land area). If a workable system, based on current management principles could be found, then the system was regarded as being capable of adaptation. At 11 locations in Ireland dairy production was investigated using Dairy_sim for both well-drained and poorly drained soils using a 2080 climate-period forecast. Climate change impact was evaluated by looking at changes in system properties such as stocking rate, grass yield and silage supply following simulation for baseline 1970 (1961–1990) and 2080 (2070–2099) climates. For the maximised production scenario it was found that dairy production in Ireland should readily adapt to forecasted changes in agrometeorological conditions and can remain functional.