Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland

Abstract

Changes in water and nitrogen management for spring barley and potato, arising from possible climate change in Ireland, were assessed using simulation models. The locations in Ireland with the highest proportion (by area) of barley and potato production were identified and 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 monthly climate data were used to drive mechanistic crop models. Nitrogen and water response curves were created using current recommended management guidelines as a starting point. A series of step-wise manual irrigation simulations were then undertaken to estimate the minimum future irrigation demand for specific areas. It was concluded that there will be little impact on spring barley production, but in some areas (towards the centre and western half of Ireland) it might be possible to reduce nitrogen application rates by half. The impact of climate change on potato production will be more pronounced: without irrigation yield will only remain viable in areas where rainfall remains high, elsewhere between 150 and 300 mm of irrigation will be required each year, but this might be offset by the possibility of reducing nitrogen inputs by up to half. It was also concluded that potato production on less suitable (heavier) soils would be less desirable if irrigation is required because of possible run-off losses that may occur.