Assessment of Termination Criteria at Each Drought Response Stage on Climate Change in a Multi-Purpose Dam

Abstract

In this study, the termination criteria at each drought response stage were shown to increase storage volume while maintaining the stability of the water supply service during drought in multi-purpose dams. For 52 of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5/8.5 scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) fifth assessment report (AR5), dam inflows were calculated through the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS), and time reliability and supply reliability were estimated. Moreover, given the application of termination criteria at each drought response stage, the volume of additional water supply was calculated, while the number of days for additional supply availability of water for residential and industrial use and water for residential, industrial, and agricultural use and river maintenance was quantified as well. The CMCC-CMS(RCP4.5) GCM exhibited the largest volume of additional water supply at 74.15 million m3, which corresponds to 52.0 days of water for residential and industrial use and to 47.7 days of water for residential, industrial, and agricultural use and river maintenance. The analysis revealed that the volume and the number of days of additional water supply also increased for other GCMs due to the application of termination criteria at each drought response stage.