Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress

Abstract

In this study, we identify the spatial distribution of water deficits in Poland. The analyses considered expert knowledge in soil categories importance in water stress evaluation influencing the climate suitability for maize production using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The Climatic Water Balance was calculated from April to September, for the baseline (BL) period (1981–2010) and two future periods of 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) using a six-member ensemble of GCM-RCM chain simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: low emissions (LE, RCP4.5) and high emissions (HE, RCP8.5). Taking into consideration water deficiency for the BL period, about 81% of Poland proved highly suitable, 18% moderately suitable and 1% marginally suitable for maize cultivation. According to LE and HE scenarios, the area of Poland that is highly suitable for maize production would decrease to 67 and 69% by the 2050s, and to 64 and 44% by the 2080s. By the 2080s, under the HE scenario, rain-fed maize production would become risky, as 21% of Poland would be marginally suitable, while 11% would not be suitable. According to our findings, supplemental irrigation is one of the effective adaptation strategies to maintain the production potential of maize in Poland.