Assessment of Solar-Driven Green Generation Potential in Renewable Energy Development: Global Forecasts аnd Opportunities for Ukraine

Abstract

The study assessed the prospects of solar green generation in the context of modern trends in the development of renewable energy in the world, taking into account the forecast estimates of world energy agencies in the perspective of 2030–2060. Global and European aggregated data for three simulated scenarios of energy and climate policy (STEPS, APS, NZE) in terms of the use of solar photovoltaic technologies and technologies of solar energy concentration up to 2030–2050 were evaluated. It was determined that by 2060 for the European Union, according to the “EU Basic Scenario”, the following will be ensured: increase in energy production using solar photovoltaic technologies to the value of 876 PJ; almost four-fold increase in the volume of energy production using solar energy concentration technologies to a value of 566 PJ; it is planned to gradually increase the amount of electricity production, using solar photovoltaic technologies, to the value of 243 TWh; more than a fivefold increase in electricity production will be ensured using solar energy concentration technologies to a value of 58 TWh; it is planned to gradually increase the electrical capacity of installations based on solar photovoltaic technologies to the value of 195 GW; will provide more than a fourfold increase in the electrical capacity of installations based on solar energy concentration technologies to a value of 17 GW. The volumes of solar green generation will be approximately 30 to 50% of the total generation of energy from renewable sources in the foreseeable future, mainly due to the use of solar PV generation, which will lead to a significant reduction in CO2 emissions. Expansion of solar generation for Ukraine should be considered as a means of overcoming the energy crisis and increasing the environmental and energy security of the generating capacities of the Ukrainian energy industry.