Abstract
Abstract. We present a methodology for mapping faults that constitute a potential hazard to structures, with an emphasis on ground shake hazards and on surface rupture nearby critical facilities such as dams and nuclear power plants. The methodology categorises faults by hierarchic seismo-tectonic criteria, which are designed according to the degree of certainty for recent activity and the accessibility of the information within a given region. First, the instrumental seismicity is statistically processed to obtain the gridded seismicity of the earthquake density and the seismic moment density parameters. Their spatial distribution reveals the zones of the seismic sources, within the examined period. We combine these results with geodetic and pre-instrumental slip rates, historical earthquake data, geological maps and aerial photography to define and categorise faults that are likely to generate significant earthquakes (M≥6.0). Their mapping is fundamental for seismo-tectonic modelling and for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). In addition, for surface rupture hazard, we create a database and a map of Quaternary capable faults by developing criteria according to the regional stratigraphy and the tectonic configuration. The relationship between seismicity, slip dynamics and fault activity through time is an intrinsic result of our analysis that allows revealing the dynamic of the deformation in the region. The presented methodology expands the ability to differentiate between subgroups for planning or maintenance of different constructions or for research aims, and it can be applied in other regions.
Highlights
The global population growth and the establishment of sensitive facilities, such as nuclear power plants or dams, increase the seismic risk to higher levels and require profound understanding of the seismic hazard (e.g. Marano et al, 2010)
The former are the regional faults that should be considered for ground shaking models and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the latter constitute surface rupture hazards that should be considered for siting facilities with environmental impact, such as dams and nuclear plants, or other vulnerable facilities
Regions with intermediate seismicity rates present a challenge for hazard evaluation; whilst the hazard might be perceptible, the seismic data and the geological evidence for recent surface rupture are sparse compared to very active zones
Summary
The global population growth and the establishment of sensitive facilities, such as nuclear power plants or dams, increase the seismic risk to higher levels and require profound understanding of the seismic hazard (e.g. Marano et al, 2010). The methodology is implemented for generating regional maps of the “main seismic sources” and of “capable faults” The former are the regional faults that should be considered for ground shaking models and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the latter constitute surface rupture hazards that should be considered for siting facilities with environmental impact, such as dams and nuclear plants, or other vulnerable facilities. Due to the scarcity of large earthquakes in the instrumental era, complementary information is required for further constraining the location of the main sources of significant earthquakes and for characterising them. This information can come from archaeological and paleo-seismological investigations, as well as from historical documents (Ambraseys, 2009; Agnon, 2014; Marco and Klinger, 2014; Zohar et al, 2016). The Gutenberg–Richter empirical law can aid in assessing the frequency of strong shocks by extrapo-
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