Assessment of safety risk in airline operations based on constant-sum game

Abstract

Safety is the key to airline operations. The premise for ensuring safety is valid classification and scientific assessment of hazardous sources. The airlines, however, are deficient in an overall mastery and effective analysis of the hazardous sources currently. Here, we propose a model for a safety risk assessment in airline operations based on constant-sum games, with a comprehensive analysis of hazardous sources identified by airlines. The subjective and objective weights of the hazardous source indicators are balanced depending on the optimal coefficients, which are determined by deriving the countermeasure model through the constant-sum game theory. The comparative analysis of safety risks and weaknesses in management for airlines or secondary departments is then conducted. Meanwhile, a long-term reward mechanism is introduced into the model to eliminate the negative effect of a sudden increase in safety risk indices caused by the newly added hazardous sources. This method provides airlines with an accurate assessment of the safety status and an estimation of safety development which trends to make targeted decisions and realize prevention beforehand.