Assessment of risks and threats to the development of socio-economic system

Abstract

In recent years, the subjects of the Russian Federation are becoming increasingly independent in the areas of management, management and disposal of financial resources in the region. The trend of decentralization of management leads to an increase in the responsibility of regional authorities for the current socio-economic situation in their subordinate entities, as well as for its further development. Ensuring economic security is one of the priorities for the development and regulation of regional socio-economic systems. The need to maintain sustainable economic development is due to two components that form a generalized structure of the concept of sustainable development: ensuring the prerequisites for economic growth, improving the level and quality of life of the population of the region. Economic security is considered as a set of economic, geopolitical, environmental, legal and other conditions that provide prerequisites for its survival in the event of a crisis and for development in the future, protection of vital interests of the state in relation to its resource potential, balance and dynamics of development and growth. The paper presents a model for the overall assessment of the impact of adverse socio-economic factors on the formation of sustainable development of the economic system. Due to the use of the Cobb-Douglas production function, the influence of threats was taken into account by means of a model description of indicators describing the dynamics of financial and labor resources. As a result, a mathematical definition of risk for the development of socio-economic system, expressed as a risk for the formation of GRP. It is possible to obtain a rapid assessment of the impact of economic threats on the development of the economic system and to calculate the economic damage possible in the implementation of these threats.