Dynamic modeling of risks and threats to the development of economic system

Abstract

Maintaining economic security is a priority for the development of both the regional socio-economic system and the economy of the state as a whole. The need for sustainable economic development is due to two components that form the generalized structure of the concept of sustainable development: ensuring the prerequisites for economic growth, improving the level and quality of life of the population of the region. Economic security is considered as a set of economic, geopolitical, environmental, legal and other conditions that provide prerequisites for its survival in the event of a crisis and development in the future, protecting the vital interests of the state in relation to its resource potential, balance and dynamics of development and growth. Sustainable development of socio-economic systems at various levels is currently one of the main research topics. The relevance of this topic lies in the scale and importance of the tasks included in the process of ensuring the sustainability of economic systems. To model the level and dynamics of GRP indicators, capital per employee, and the optimal investment plan, we used a modified model of economic growth. The considered model combines classical constructions of the theory of economic growth and modern methods of analysis of the theory of optimal control. Investment in fixed assets is a control parameter in the model that allows for the growth of output through the production function. Using the Cobb-Douglas production function, the impact of threats was taken into account using a model description of indicators describing the dynamics of financial and labor resources. As a result, a mathematical definition of the risk of development of the socio-economic system is obtained.