Assessment of Precipitation Simulations in Central Asia by CMIP5 Climate Models

Zhijie Ta,Xi Chen,Lingxiao Sun,Guijin Mu,Yang Yu,Ruide Yu

doi:10.3390/w10111516

Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides data, which is widely used to assess global and regional climate change. In this study, we evaluated the ability of 37 global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP5 to simulate historical precipitation in Central Asia (CA). The relative root mean square error (RRMSE), spatial correlation coefficient, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were used as criteria for evaluation. The precipitation simulation results of GCMs were compared with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) precipitation in 1986–2005. Most models show a variety of precipitation simulation capabilities both spatially and temporally, whereas the top six models were identified as having good performance in CA, including HadCM3, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-P, CMCC-CM, and CMCC-CMS. As the GCMs have large uncertainties in the prediction of future precipitation, it is difficult to find the best model to predict future precipitation in CA. Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) results can give a good simulation of precipitation, and are superior to individual models.

Highlights

Climate change presents a range of challenges for agriculture, forest, and water management practices [1]
We firsttested tested whether the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models can the reproduce the spatial distribution precipitation based on the
There is an amount of research showing that global climate models (GCMs) have systematic and nonstationary biases [49,50], and this makes it important to assess the accuracy of climate models

Summary

Introduction

Climate change presents a range of challenges for agriculture, forest, and water management practices [1]. A large number of studies have shown that climate change can significantly affect the distribution of water resources. Governments should make corresponding adjustments in the planning and management policies of water resources [2,3]. Climate change has a significant impact on the distribution of water resources in space and time, which will make a great difference in precipitation in different seasons and regions, and affect the amount of water resources. Current and future water-related issues are major national and international relations issues, which means that it is especially important to evaluate the magnitude and change in precipitation [5]

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Methods

Conclusion