Assessment of operation safety risk for South-to-North Water Diversion Project: a fuzzy VIKOR-FMEA approach

Huimin Li,Lunyan Wang,Yongchao Cao,Feng Li,Ying Ma,Yinju Guo

doi:10.2166/ws.2022.009

Abstract

Abstract The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is a cross-basin large-scale water infrastructure, whose operational management faces many complex risks. This study constructs an operational safety risk analysis model based on fuzzy VIKOR-FMEA. First, the expert team used linguistic variables to evaluate the severity of each failure mode (S), frequency of occurrence (O), and difficulty of detection (D) in the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). Then, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the maximal deviation approach were integrated to carry out risk factor weights. The risk factor weight analysis matrix integrates the subjective and objective weights to obtain the comprehensive weights of the risk factors. Secondly, VIKOR is introduced to improve the traditional FMEA model and is used to calculate the risk priority number. The case study shows that untimely flood protection, irregular maintenance, and untimely emergency response are in the top order. Finally, it is compared with the traditional FMEA method, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, and provides a reference algorithm for risk analysis of operation management for the water diversion project.

Highlights

Since the official operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in December 2014, the allocation of water resources along the route has been further optimized and has provided uninterrupted and safe water supply for about 1,700 days, playing a significant role in ensuring water security, restoring water ecology, and improving the water environment
The geographical span of the SNWDP is large, the operational reliability requirements are high, the management is difficult, and the operational management safety risk has a significant impact on the operational reliability of the project
This study proposes a risk assessment model for the operational management safety of the SNWDP based on the integrated empowerment method and fuzzy VIKOR-failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA)

Summary

Introduction

Since the official operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in December 2014, the allocation of water resources along the route has been further optimized and has provided uninterrupted and safe water supply for about 1,700 days, playing a significant role in ensuring water security, restoring water ecology, and improving the water environment. The study of the operation and management risks of SNWDP can be used as a reference for the actual operation and management of the project to reduce the risks that may exist in the operation and management of the project, and is of great importance for the scheduling and operation of the South-North Water Diversion Project and the innovation of the operation and management system (Liu & Geng 2010)

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion