Abstract
Abstract. This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.
Highlights
Climate change is predicted to considerably affect the hydrology of northeastern Brazil
This study aims to assess the influence of land-use change on the streamflow through GIS and remote sensing techniques coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model
The Tapacurá catchment covers an area of about 470 km2, and is located in the Zona da Mata region in the state of Pernambuco, northeastern Brazil, between coordinates 7°58′0′′ and 8°13′0′′ S, and 35°5′0′′ and 35°30′0′′ W (Fig. 1)
Summary
Climate change is predicted to considerably affect the hydrology of northeastern Brazil Streamflow characteristics, both mean and interannual variability, of the Tapacurá catchment have far-reaching implications for the Recife Metropolitan Region (Silva et al 2012), especially during periods of water scarcity, such as during and following the major drought of 1998 in this region. Previous studies on the hydrological response to climate change in basins in northeastern Brazil drew attention to the risk of worsening water availability and the impact on the hydrology and social aspects in the region. We have examined this need for more sophisticated modelling procedures in the context of climate change to expose the strengths and weaknesses of linking global and regional climate models to a runoff model to calculate the discharge consistent with a future climate scenario. This study aims to assess the influence of land-use change on the streamflow through GIS and remote sensing techniques coupled with the SWAT model
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