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Abstract
Pakistan’s economy is significantly reliant on agriculture. However, Pakistan is included in the most water-stressed countries in the world, and its water resources are considerably vulnerable to climate variability and climate change. Therefore, in the present study, the water resources of the Jhelum River basin, which provides water to 6 million hectares of land of Pakistan and hydropower production, were assessed under the scenarios A2 and B2 of HadCM3. A hydrological model, Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), was set up, calibrated, and validated for the Jhelum basin, and then streamflow was simulated for three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The simulated streamflow of each period was compared with the simulated streamflow of the baseline period (1971–2000) to find the changes in the following indicators: mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, and center-of-volume dates (CVDs). The results of the study showed an increase of 10%–15% in the mean annual flow as compared to the baseline flow at the end of this century. Winter, spring, and autumn showed an increase in streamflow at most of the sites in all three periods. However, summer (the monsoon season in the basin) showed decreased streamflow at most of the sites. Maximum increase at Azad Pattan was projected in winter in the 2080s, with about 37%–39% increase in flow under both scenarios. Low and median flows were projected to increase, but a decline in high flow was detected in the future under both scenarios. It was also concluded that half of the annual flow in the basin will pass by the Azad Pattan site one week earlier than it does now. On the whole, the Jhelum basin would face more temporal and magnitudinal variations in high, low, and mean flows relative to present conditions. This shows that without a consideration of climate change impacts, proper utilization and management of water resources in the basin will be more difficult.
Highlights
A dramatic increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to anthropogenic forces such as burning of fossil fuel and biomass, land-use changes, rapid industrialization, and deforestation is the major factor in global warming and global energy imbalance [1,2]
The economy of Pakistan is highly based on agriculture and water is the primary factor for agriculture
Pakistan is included in the list of the most water-stressed countries in the world, and its water resources are greatly vulnerable to changing conditions of climate
Summary
A dramatic increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to anthropogenic forces such as burning of fossil fuel and biomass, land-use changes, rapid industrialization, and deforestation is the major factor in global warming and global energy imbalance [1,2]. The global average temperature has increased by 0.85 ̋ C (0.65–1.06 ̋ C) during 1800–2012, relative to 1961–1990 [3], and during the last 100 years (1906–2005), it has increased by 0.74 ̆ 0.18 ̋ C [4] This global warming is strongly projected to continue in the future, with an increase of about 0.3–4.8 ̋ C 1986–2005) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) This projected global warming is likely to intensify and disturb the hydrologic cycle of the world. Hydrologic systems are likely to face changes in water availability and extreme events [4,5]. This can cause problems for water energy exploitation, municipal as well as industrial water demand, Water 2016, 8, 246; doi:10.3390/w8060246 www.mdpi.com/journal/water
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