Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

Nitin Tripathi,Sangam Shrestha,Akiyuki Kawasaki,Muhammad Babur,Mukand Babel

doi:10.3390/w8090389

Abstract

Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT) for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) and compared with the baseline data (1981–2010) to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

Highlights

Global mean temperature has increased by 0.6 ◦ C [1] over the course of the 20th century.Climate models estimate [2,3,4,5,6,7,8] that the global average temperature is likely to increase 4.0 ◦ C by the conclusion of the 21st century [9]
This study aims to answer the following major questions: What will be a probable climate of Mangla watershed? How will inflow into Mangla Reservoir change because of climate change using
The scatter plot shows the changes in average annual temperature as a function of the changes in average annual precipitation projected by each Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

Summary

Introduction

Global mean temperature has increased by 0.6 ◦ C [1] over the course of the 20th century.Climate models estimate [2,3,4,5,6,7,8] that the global average temperature is likely to increase 4.0 ◦ C by the conclusion of the 21st century [9]. Various authors used SRES scenarios for climate change impact studies [11,12,13,14,15], nowadays those scenarios have become outdated. Water 2016, 8, 389 have utilized a few GCMs under SRES scenarios for climate change impact studies [16,17,18,19,20,21,22]. The RCPs are not linked with exclusive socioeconomic assumptions or emissions scenarios These are based on the groupings of economic, technological, demographic, policy, and future institutional challenges of mitigation and adaptation. Another benefit of RCPs is their better resolution that helps in performing regional and local comparative studies [23]

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