Abstract
This work aims to evaluate future water availability in the Mékrou catchment under climate change scenarios. To reach this goal, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were used as the input for four rainfall-runoff models which are ModHyPMA (Hydrological Model based on Least Action Principe), HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning), AWBM (Australian Water Balance Model), and SimHyd (Simplified Hydrolog). Then the mean values of the hydro-meteorological data of three different projected periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) were compared to their values in the baseline period. The results of calibration and validation of these models show that the meteorological data from RCMs give performances that are as good as performances obtained with the observed meteorological data in the baseline period. The comparison of the mean values of the hydro-meteorological data of the baseline period to their values for the different projected periods indicates that for PET there is a significantly increase until 2100 for both Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Therefore, the rate’s increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET) under the RCP8.5 scenario is higher than that obtained under the RCP8.5 scenario. Changes in rainfall amounts depend on the scenario of climate change and the projected periods. For the RCP4.5 scenario, there is a little increase in the annual rainfall amounts over the period from 2011 to 2040, while there is a decrease in the rainfall amounts over the other two projected periods. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the contrary of changes observed with the RCP4.5 scenario are observed. At a monthly scale, the rainfall amounts will increase for August and September and decrease for July and October. These changes in rainfall amounts greatly affect yearly and monthly discharge at the catchment outlet. Over the three projected periods and for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the mean annual discharge will significantly increase related to the baseline periods. However, the magnitude of increases will depend on the projected period and the RCP scenario. At a monthly scale, it was found that runoff increases significantly from August to November for all projected periods and the climate change scenario.
Highlights
An international awareness of climate change and its consequences has been observed in recent decades
Recent works on the West African region [6,7,8], under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios of climate change projections, indicate that continued warming (1 ◦ C to 6.5 ◦ C) and a wider range of rainfall uncertainty will be observed in the Sahel until 2100
2040, the RCP4.5 scenario forecasts a slight increase in rainfall amounts compared to the reference period
Summary
An international awareness of climate change and its consequences has been observed in recent decades. Recent works on the West African region [6,7,8], under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios of climate change projections, indicate that continued warming (1 ◦ C to 6.5 ◦ C) and a wider range of rainfall uncertainty (between −30% and 30%) will be observed in the Sahel until 2100. The total intensity of precipitation for very wet days and the length of the dry spell period will increase until 2100 in the Mékrou catchment [9]. These changes could cause significant modifications to the hydrological regime of the catchment, especially at the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 scenario
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