Abstract
Climate change will affect the water resources system, on global and regional levels. Over the past thirty years, the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco have experienced severe droughts, which causes a decrease in water supply that affects both agriculture and the urban water system. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change and socio-economic activities on water supply and demand in the Ourika watershed (High Atlas of Morocco), then we evaluate the efficiency and sustainability of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management. For this, we simulate and analyze the future water situation using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP). After the model’s calibration and validation, the precipitation, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results revealed that the model’s performance, calibration and validation were found to be satisfactory. The analysis shows that the mean precipitation will decrease by 49.25% and 34.61% by 2100, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 4.2 °C (A2) and 3.6 °C (B2), and Tmin by 3.5 °C (A2) and 2.9 °C (B2) by 2100. The results also show that water demand and the unmet water demand will increase in all scenarios, the pressure on water resources will increase, leading to water scarcity. The results reveal that, under the influence of climate change, future unmet water demand is expected to reach 64 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The results demonstrate that the assessments of the proposed adaptation strategies are effective, but not sufficient to ensure water sustainability for the Ourika watershed.
Highlights
Climate change is unequivocal, global and will have severe consequences, even under the most optimistic scenario [1]
The results show that unmet water demand would decrease by 52 and 42 million cubic meters (MCM) in scenarios A2 and B2, respectively in 2100 (Figure 10)
The results show that unmet water demand will on the management conservation of water in This thescenario’s
Summary
Global and will have severe consequences, even under the most optimistic scenario [1]. Among the most important impacts of climate change are the rise in surface temperature and the reduction in precipitation in some regions [2] and declining water quantity and quality [3,4]. Previous studies have considered the Mediterranean region as a global “hot spot” in terms of climate change, where precipitation is likely to decrease with increasing temperatures [8,9,10]. They are among the countries most threatened by water stress, due to the extreme interannual, spatial, and temporal variability of water resources and the decrease in water inflows expected in the coming decades [11]. When problems related to water quantity and quality occur, it can have repercussions, on flora and fauna, and on the economy, health and well-being of the human population
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