Assessment of future socioeconomic drought based on CMIP6: evolution, driving factors and propagation

Abstract

Socioeconomic drought can directly affect human survival and economic development, however, existing literature lacks information related to the formation and development of socioeconomic drought and mainly deals with drought index and its properties. We used Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6), System Dynamics (SD) method and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to calculate the Standardized Water Supply and Demand Index (SWSDI). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was applied to identify the driving factors of socioeconomic drought in Dongjiang basin, and predict its future properties. Then, propagation and the time from meteorological and hydrological to socioeconomic drought were predicted. The duration and intensity of socioeconomic drought events were lower in the wet season than in the dry season, and those having higher severity were more discrete. Among different factors, precipitation exerted more pronounced impacts than radiation forcing. Similarly, positive correlations between total vegetated percentage cover, rural per capita income, and radiation forcing were observed to be affecting the socioeconomic drought, whereas leaf area index was negatively correlated. Seasonal variations significantly affected the propagation time, where the time for the wet season was less than for the dry season. Moreover, intensive radiative forcing would momentarily shorten the optimal propagation time in the wet season and extend it in the dry season. Results of this study provide a theoretical basis for understanding the causes, mechanisms, and factors responsible for socioeconomic drought and also provides insights on its transmission mechanism.