Assessment of future climate variability and potential adaptation strategies on yield of peanut and Kharif rice in eastern India

Abstract

Temperature and CO2 are the two most important climate parameters that affect crop yield directly. In this study, the impact of these two parameters on the productivity of peanut and rice under the sub-humid and sub-tropical condition of Eastern India were assessed using experimental data and the DSSAT v4.5 CROPGRO-Peanut and CERES-Rice model. Experimental results of peanut and rice with four sowing dates of each were used as the baseline scenarios. The future weather data from the CSIRO-Mk3–6.0 model for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 was used to the peanut and rice crop model to simulate the yield using future weather data for the periods 2020, 2050, and 2080, and change in yield was compared with the baseline (1980–2013) at Kharagpur, West Bengal, India. The results reveal that rising temperature has negative effect on the growth and developmental phases of crop, and it brings early flowering. Concurrently, increase in temperature causes reduction of crop yield due to pollen sterility and poor pollen growth during reproductive growth stage. The CO2 concentrations used in the model, as projected by IPCC, were 390, 420, 530, and 650 ppm for the years 1980–2013 (baseline), 2020, 2050, and 2080, respectively. However, simulation was made using the model for percent change in mean temperature of 3.36 °C for 2020, 7.59 °C for 2050, and 10.4 °C for 2080. The model simulation reveals that elevated CO2 concentration of 420, 530 and 650 ppm showed gradual increase in the grain yield and biomass yield with shifting in sowing dates for peanut crop. On the other hand, for rice crop, though the crop yield increases gradually, the total biomass yield would reduce in future climate change scenario.