Assessment of droughts in Jordan

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify drought conditions in Jordan in the period 1960‐2006 for two major basins – the Yarmouk and the Zarqa. This study aims to look at the long‐term drought conditions (hydrological droughts) and to investigate the possibility of changes in the monthly precipitation pattern for the period of 1997‐2006, as this period has suffered from the average slightly dry conditions for the two basins.Design/methodology/approachThe Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to assess drought conditions in the Yarmouk and Zarqa basins. The SPI is applied on an annual basis to assess the hydrological long‐term droughts. Average monthly precipitation is used as the input to the SPI procedure.FindingsThe SPI is applied on an annual basis (12 months) SPI‐12. Results of the SPI‐12 assessment show that the years 1978, 1995, and 1999 represented extremely dry conditions in both basins. The years 1989 and 1993 represented severely dry conditions in the Zarqa basin and extremely dry conditions in the Yarmouk basin. The statistical procedure for precipitation anomalies identifies precipitation anomalies for the years 2000, 2003, and 2006. However, due to the limited number of anomaly years this study does not conclude that there is a change in the pattern of monthly precipitation of the tested period 1997‐ 2006.Research limitations/implicationsUsing the SPI method this work can be extended to compare drought conditions in the remaining major basins in the country.Originality/valueThe paper provides important information about drought conditions in Jordan and ways to assess precipitation anomalies and pattern changes. This can be beneficial to the planning of water resources in Jordan and the associated developments (agricultural, industrial, tourism, and residential).