Precipitation pattern changes and response of vegetation to drought variability in the eastern Hungary

Safwan Mohammed,Karam Alsafadi,Suliman Mahmood,Endre Harsányi,Hasan Daher,Béla Gombos

doi:10.1186/s42269-020-00306-y

Abstract

BackgroundRecently, many parts of Hungary, as well as central Europe, have been hit by successive extreme climatic events. The main aim of this research was to analyze hydrological and agricultural drought episodes in the Debrecen Region in eastern Hungary from 1950 to 2010. Thus, data of monthly precipitation were collected and tested. After that, three indices were applied, the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), dry Precipitation Concentration Index (dPCI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Meanwhile, the correlation between SPI and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated.ResultsThe results showed that the PCI values ranged between 9.44 and 15.8 with an average of 11.8, while the dPCI values ranged between 8.6 and 20.7 with an average of 10.9, which indicates heterogeneity in rainfall distribution from year to year. More than 103 events of severe agricultural drought were detected for the whole studied period. In connection to this, severe hydrological drought was recorded in 16% of the total monthly rainfall events from 1950 to 2010. Interestingly, a significant correlation was obtained between SPI-3, -6 (i.e., drought), and NDVI in the summer season.ConclusionsThe SPI index could provide an easy tool for drought monitoring meanwhile drought evaluation and monitoring should be taken seriously in the central Europe.

Highlights

Climate change in the current decades is one of the major threats of human food security all over the world; where its consequences affect millions of people every year (Tirado et al 2010; Mohammed and Fallah 2019; Mohammed et al 2019a)
A significant correlation was obtained between Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-3, -6, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the summer season
The SPI index could provide an easy tool for drought monitoring drought evaluation and monitoring should be taken seriously in the central Europe

Summary

Introduction

Climate change in the current decades is one of the major threats of human food security all over the world; where its consequences affect millions of people every year (Tirado et al 2010; Mohammed and Fallah 2019; Mohammed et al 2019a). Climate change events can be divided into two major groups: the first one needs a long period to be noticed, where it developed in silence as drought (Mukherjee et al 2018). Makra et al (2002) analyzed climatic data for the eastern part of Hungary and concluded that the period between 1901 and 1940 was wet, while the rest of the years until the 1990s were found to be significantly drier. The main aim of this research was to analyze hydrological and agricultural drought episodes in the Debrecen Region in eastern Hungary from 1950 to 2010. The correlation between SPI and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion