Assessment of coastal vulnerability using integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and geospatial technology for effective coastal management.

Abstract

The vulnerability of coastal regions to climate change is a growing global concern, particularly in Bangladesh, which is vulnerable to flooding and storm surges due to its low-lying coastal areas. In this study, we used the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) method to assess the physical and social vulnerability of the entire coastal areas of Bangladesh, using 10 critical factors to evaluate the coastal vulnerability model (CVM). Our analysis indicates that a significant portion of the coastal regions of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We found that one-third of the study area, encompassing around 13,000 km2, was classified as having high or very high coastal vulnerability. Districts in the central delta region, such as Barguna, Bhola, Noakhali, Patuakhali, and Pirojpur, were found to have high to very high physical vulnerability. Meanwhile, the southern parts of the study area were identified as highly socially vulnerable. Our findings also showed that the coastal areas of Patuakhali, Bhola, Barguna, Satkhira, and Bagerhat were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The coastal vulnerability map we developed using the FAHP method showed satisfactory modeling, with an AUC of 0.875. By addressing the physical and social vulnerability factors identified in our study, policymakers can take proactive steps to ensure the safety and wellbeing of coastal residents in the face of climate change.