Assessment of climatic risks for real estate

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the functionality and main results of the ImmoRisk tool. The aim of the project of the Federal Ministry for Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS), in corporation with the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR), was to develop a user-friendly tool that provides a sound basis with respect to the risk situation caused by extreme weather events. Design/methodology/approach – The tool calculates the annual expected losses (AEL) for different types of extreme weather hazard and the damage rate as the proportion of AEL on building value, based on a trinomial approach: natural hazard, vulnerability and the value of the property. Findings – The paper provides property-specific risk profiles of both the present and future risk situation caused by various extreme weather events. Research limitations/implications – The approach described in the paper can serve as a model for the realization of subsequent tools in further countries bound with other climatic risks. Practical implications – The real estate industry is affected by a significant rise in monetary damages caused by extreme weather events. Accordingly, the approach is suitable for implementation in the companies’ real estate risk management systems. Social implications – The tool offers homeowners a profound basis for investment decisions with regard to adaptation measures. Originality/value – The approach pioneers fourfold: first, by meeting the needs of the housing and real estate industry based on a trinomial approach; second, by using a property-specific bottom-up approach; third, by offering both a comprehensive risk assessment of the hazards storms, flood and hailstorm and finally, by providing results with respect to the future climatic risk situation.