Assessment of adaptive capacity to sea level rise using open-loop system, case study: Cirebon and Pangandaran

Abstract

This research aims to assess the adaptive capacity of three adaptive strategies applied in Cirebon and Pangandaran by estimating community assets under threat of Sea-Level Rise (SLR) through open-loop system. Firstly, SLR in Cirebon and Pangandaran each month from 2006 to 2100 is simulated using ocean heat flux and ice melting model data by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5, Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Assessment Report (IPCC AR) 5. This simulation result is then added with ocean phenomena such as tide, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), storm surge, and Kelvin wave along with their frequencies. By the year 2100, the sea level in Cirebon will reach 115.65 cm and 148.09 cm in Pangandaran. Secondly, the SLR and applied strategies are converted to be inundation maps of community assets. Overall, the result shows the best policy for both regencies is protect which has an adaptive capacity value of 96.30% and 76.65% respectively. But deeper, the adaptive strategy for each district in both regencies differs one to another.