Abstract
Travel time reliability is considered as an important index on the reliability of a road network. The objective of this article is to study the impact of ice and snowfall on the travel time reliability. For this purpose, the link travel time ISB-BPR (Ice and Snowfall Based- Bureau of Public Roads) model is proposed, which is based on the conventional BPR (Bureau of Public Roads) model and scale functions are added to the corresponding parameters of BPR. To follow the characteristics of route choice, SUE (stochastic user equilibrium) is adopted in this study. We develop an assessment methodology, which integrates sensitivity analysis of SUE and Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the travel time reliability. The ISB-BPR model and the algorithm are applied to a hypothetical small road network and results are presented. The results show that travel time level of service and intensity of ice and snowfall have the most significant impact on the travel time reliability.
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