Abstract
Abstract In this paper, a model to estimate travel time reliability is proposed assuming a stochastic user equilibrium. Travel time reliability is defined as the probability that travel time between the origin and destination does not exceed a standard travel time corresponding to each service level. Also it is shown how to calculate travel time reliability in a large-scale network. This model is applied to the road network in the Hanshin area to evaluate new lines in the national road plan from the viewpoint of travel time reliability. Some important links and lines in the future road network are evaluated from the viewpoint of travel time reliability.
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