Abstract
This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is determined during the 21 December 2011 flooding event. Ten sensitivity experiments have been conducted using Cumulus, Convective and Planetary boundary layer schemes to find the best combination and optimize the WRF model for the study area for heavy rainfall events. Model simulation results were verified against observed data using standard statistical tests. The model simulations show encouraging and better statistical results with the combination of Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme, Lin microphysics scheme and Asymmetric Convection Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary scheme than any other combinations of physical parameterization schemes over Dar es Salaam region.
Highlights
Extreme rainfall events are among the devastating weather phenomena since they are frequently followed by flash floods, landslide and sometimes accompanied by severe weather such as lightning, hail, strong surface winds and intense vertical wind shear [1] [2]
This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF ARW model to evaluate the impact of parameterization schemes on simulating heavy rainfall event that occurred over Dar es Salaam on 21 December 2011 and the model results have been validated with observations
Summary
Extreme rainfall events are among the devastating weather phenomena since they are frequently followed by flash floods, landslide and sometimes accompanied by severe weather such as lightning, hail, strong surface winds and intense vertical wind shear [1] [2]. Tanzania has been impacted by extreme climatic conditions such as floods and droughts [3] [4] These events have caused losses of life, property and destruction of environment [5]. The main objective of Numerical weather prediction is to describe better the behavior of the atmospheric physical processes that affect weather events and use them in the model to estimate the state of the atmosphere at some time in the future [10] [11]. These physical processes are called parameterization schemes
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