ASSESSING URBAN POOR RESILIENCE TO NATURAL DISASTERS USING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS-BASED MODEL: A CASE STUDY ON KHULNA CITY

Abstract

This article intends to measure the urban poor’s resilience to natural disasters using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) based model. It also explores factors affecting differentiated levels of household resilience. It is found that urban poor communities in Khulna city frequently experience urban flooding and waterlogging, caused by heavy rainfall, as a primary hazard and therefore this article emphasizes on differentiated nature of urban poor’s resilience to natural hazards and the factors that shape differentiated nature of resilience. Quantitative research approach has been adopted and AHP-based indexing has been used to measure the level of resilience of the urban poor and contributing factors to their resilience level. The household questionnaire survey has been used as the data collection method and the total sample size of this research is 384 and all the primary data is collected from the six slums in Khulna city which have been selected using different vulnerability criteria like geographical location, size of the slums, and mean sea-level height of the slum. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is used to determine the weight of indicators and dimensions which have been used to calculate resilience. Additionally, the principal component analysis (PCA) is also used to identify the determinant factors. The results revealed that 40.88% and 48.96% of people are low and moderately resilient respectively. The percentage of high resilient people in the low-income settlements in Khulna city is very low as only 10.16% of the households are found as highly resilient in the urban poor settlements. It identifies several factors that have the highest effect on differential level resilience, including access to formal safety nets and social assistance, income and livelihood strategy, illness, debt etc. Highlighting the factors that influence differentiated levels of resilience local government or policymakers can take different policy recommendations to improve the resilience of the urban poor that including strengthening the social security system for the urban poor, creating livelihood opportunities, public health services, etc.