Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan

Naqvi Naqvi,Ali Ali,Nadeem Nadeem,Iqbal Iqbal,Naseem Naseem

doi:10.3390/su11195365

Abstract

Mankind is in peril and there are many reasons for this; however, climate change precedes all other reasons. Problems of poor farming communities are augmented due to the menace of climate change. This study endeavors to determine the effect on farming communities of both climate change and a situation without climate change. To carry out the study, three different districts were selected (Rawalpindi, Chakwal, and Layyah). Impact of the climate vagaries on per capita income, farm returns, and poverty of the respondents was taken into consideration. To achieve pathways analysis, regional representative agricultural pathways were used. The decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) crop growth model was employed for wheat-related simulations. The tradeoff analysis model for multidimensional impact assessment (TOA-MD) model was used for economic analysis. The results lend credence to the aforementioned nuisance of climate change, as the findings which came through were negatively affecting farm returns, per capita income, and poverty of the farmers. The negative impact applies to both current and future production systems. Farmers are up against the wall because of climate change and they will have to adopt new innovations to raise their productivity.

Highlights

Poor farming communities relying on the agriculture sector for their livelihood are prone to climate change [1]
The specific contribution of this study is that it is the first attempt of its kind to evaluate the existing vulnerability level and its allied impacts on net returns, per capita income, and poverty levels for cases with and without climate change in the rain-fed region of Pakistan
We focused on climate variability, which is expected to affect the wheat production in the arid agricultural zone of Punjab province in Pakistan

Summary

Introduction

Poor farming communities relying on the agriculture sector for their livelihood are prone to climate change [1]. Crops can be more vulnerable to environmental and climate changes, which results in an adverse impact on crop productivity, as well as farmers’ livelihood and dwindling farm income [5]. The negative impacts of climate on agriculture production systems should be compensated for to secure society from food insecurity and protect it from vulnerability to CC [13,14].

Results

Conclusion