Adaptation strategies for maize production under climate change for semi-arid environments

Abstract

Abstract Maize is the third most cultivated food crop in the world. Therefore, the impact of climate change and the development of adaptation strategies for maize are crucial to agricultural production and food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of climate change and the development of adaptations strategies for maize in semi-arid environments using the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). The model was calibrated and evaluated with an experimental data set and compared to on-farm data. The sensitivity of the model was evaluated against Carbon, Temperature, Water and Nitrogen (CTWN) analysis for the same environments. Survey data for maize were collected from 64 farms in the Faisalabad district of Pakistan using a stratified random sampling technique. Initial crop conditions and management practices were used as input data for CSM-CERES-Maize. Current climate data from 1980 to 2010 were obtained from the nearest weather station and future climate projections for 2040–2069 were obtained from Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) were designed to represent the future autonomous production system. The GCM results showed an increase of 3.4 °C in maximum and 3.8 °C in minimum temperature for hot/dry conditions. The projected increase in temperatures for the hot/dry GCM would result in a 28 % reduction for the current production system and a 29 % reduction for the future maize production system by the middle of the century. The impact of climate adaption options on current production systems was evaluated and the results showed that yield increased by 21 %. Results of climate adaptation for the future production system indicated that yield would increase by 12–17 % for all GCMs. Both the current and future production systems were negatively affected by climate change. However, improved management as adaptation strategies can offset the potential decrease in yield.