Assessing the Use of Satellite-Based Estimates and High-Resolution Precipitation Datasets for the Study of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Iberian Peninsula

Riccardo Hénin,Margarida Liberato,Célia Gouveia,Alexandre Ramos

doi:10.3390/w10111688

Abstract

An assessment of daily accumulated precipitation during extreme precipitation events (EPEs) occurring over the period 2000–2008 in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. Different sources for precipitation data, namely ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), both in near-real-time and post-real-time releases, are compared with the best ground-based high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) gridded precipitation dataset available for the IP (IB02). In this study, accuracy metrics are analysed for different quartiles of daily precipitation amounts, and additional insights are provided for a subset of EPEs extracted from an objective ranking of extreme precipitation during the extended winter period (October to March) over the IP. Results show that both reanalysis and multi-satellite datasets overestimate (underestimate) daily precipitation sums for the least (most) extreme events over the IP. In addition, it is shown that the TRMM TMPA precipitation estimates from the near-real-time product may be considered for EPEs assessment over these latitudes. Finally, it is found that the new ERA5 reanalysis accounts for large improvements over ERA-Interim and it also outperforms the satellite-based datasets.

Highlights

A better understanding of both weather and climate extremes has been indicated as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WRCP) Grand Challenges for the coming years [1].The variability of weather extremes across different temporal and spatial scales is one of the research topics for which this cross-community challenge expects significant advances, in view of the new uncertainties due to ongoing climate change
It is found that the new ERA5 reanalysis accounts for large improvements over ERA-Interim and it outperforms the satellite-based datasets
The predictability of these extremes is an issue of concern for operational forecast services which directly provide their products to local authorities and to the general public

Summary

Introduction

A better understanding of both weather and climate extremes has been indicated as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WRCP) Grand Challenges for the coming years [1]. The variability of weather extremes across different temporal and spatial scales is one of the research topics for which this cross-community challenge expects significant advances, in view of the new uncertainties due to ongoing climate change. The predictability of these extremes is an issue of concern for operational forecast services which directly provide their products to local authorities and to the general public. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are responsible for a relevant number of natural disasters, including landslides, flash-floods, and material destruction. The socio-economic impacts associated to EPEs, namely human casualties and rebuilding costs, have become of great interest for both decision makers and insurance companies [2,3]. As a matter of fact, Water 2018, 10, 1688; doi:10.3390/w10111688 www.mdpi.com/journal/water

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