Abstract
Abstract. The potential usability and benefits of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform decision-making processes is widely accepted. However, the practical use of SCF in Europe is still fairly recent and, as such, current knowledge of the added benefits of SCF in supporting and improving decision-making is limited. This study is based on research conducted to co-develop a semi-operational climate service prototype – the Land Management Tool (LMTool) – with farmers in South West regions of the UK. The value of the SCF provided to the farmers was examined to help us understand the usability and (potential) value of these forecasts in farmers' decisions during the winter months of 2015/2016. The findings from the study point to the need to explore and develop (new) research methods capable of addressing the complexity of the decision-making processes, such as those in the farming sector. The farmers who used the SCF perceived it as useful and usable as it helped them change and adapt their decision-making and thus, avoid unnecessary costs. However, to fully grasp the potential value of using SCF, farmers emphasised the need for the provision of SCF for longer periods of time to allow them to build trust and confidence in the information provided. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about how to assess the use and value of SCF in decision-making processes in a meaningful and effective way.
Highlights
The potential benefits of using seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform and support planning and decisionmaking is widely recognised across economic sectors
This paper aims to contribute to wider discussions on the usability and value of climate information, such as SCF, in decisionmaking and how to assess it in a meaningful way
Following initial interviews with these farmers a second set of farmers (n = 14) from Devon, Dorset and Somerset regions were engaged in order to increase the number of farmers involved (n = 20) across a wider geographical area of the of the southwest of the UK. These 20 farmers were engaged through two surveys, a workshop, and 2 rounds of interviews all of which aimed at allowing the codevelopment of Land Management Tool (LMTool) with the farmers and their ongoing feedback on the advances made in the tool
Summary
The potential benefits of using seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform and support planning and decisionmaking is widely recognised across economic sectors (see e.g. Harrison et al, 2008; Rickards et al, 2014; Thomson et al, 2006). In the context of SCF, such value can be translated into the (potential) benefits of using the forecast to inform and support a specific decision (Bruno Soares et al, 2017; Clements et al, 2013). The usability and value of SCF is dependent on aspects beyond the technical quality of the forecast itself such as the characteristics of the end-user and the decision-context within which the information is to be used (ibid; Lemos et al, 2012). Different methods to assess the usability and value of weather and climate information permeate the literature (Clements et al, 2013)
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