Assessing the stability of wind resource and operating conditions

Abstract

Wind energy is both a key potential mechanism to reduce climate forcing and a ‘weather-dependent’ energy source. Thus, while wind energy is making an increasing contribution to mitigation of human-induced climate change, climate variability and change have the potential to induce changes in both the average (expected) wind resource, the inter-annual variability in power production and the conditions in which wind turbines will operate. We present simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model conducted at 12 km grid-spacing (resolution) over the eastern USA and use them to quantify the spatiotemporal variability in one aspect of wind turbine operating conditions (extreme wind speeds) and possible changes in the magnitude and interannual variability of expected wind power generation. We also discuss possible approaches that can be applied to assess the differential credibility of model-derived assessment of these properties at different locations using examples drawn from the eastern US.