Assessing the stability of the relationship between yield curves and inflation

Abstract

Several papers have identified that yield curves have strong predictive power for future inflation. The present paper investigates the stability of this relationship, using the example of the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada. It confirms that the yield curve contains significant information in all four countries. The relationship appears to be stable in Germany and Canada. By contrast, there is some limited evidence for structural instability in the United States and the United Kingdom, possibly reflecting changes in monetary policy regimes.