Modeling changes in monetary policy regimes

Abstract

Following the work of Poole and others, changes in monetary policy regimes are hypothesized to be the result of the reaction of policymakers to changes in the distribution of shocks buffeting the economy. First, a time-varying estimation procedure is employed to parameterize the degree to which the policy rule has changed over time. Second, estimated changes in the policy rule are modeled explicitly, utilizing proxies for the disturbances which theory and practice suggest are relevant determinants of such variations. The results suggest changes in monetary policy regimes do not appear to be exogenous events.