Abstract
The spatial distribution and trend of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin—an important ecological barrier and economic belt in China—directly affect the stability of the ecosystem and the sustainable development of the regional economy. Based on the data for carbon emissions in China’s counties from 1997 to 2017, this paper utilizes standard deviation ellipses, Theil index nested decomposition, and geographic detector models to make a comprehensive description of the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin. Factors influencing carbon emissions are also analyzed from multiple dimensions. According to the findings, (1) carbon emissions at the county level show a clear upward trend without reaching a peak, exhibiting a spatial distribution of higher emissions in the east and lower in the west and higher in the south and lower in the north, with the mid-lower reaches being the center. The junction of the Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu provinces further exhibits a significant expansion, forming two core areas of carbon emissions. (2) Carbon emissions at the county level in the Yellow River Basin are influenced by both economic and geographic factors, exhibiting a significant high carbon spillover effect and a low carbon lock-in effect. The gravity center of the distribution has shifted towards the mid-lower reaches, with the upper reaches displaying dispersion tendencies. (3) Intra-regional disparities are the main source of the overall spatial differences in carbon emissions, with the largest disparities being observed in the upper reaches, followed by the middle reaches, and the smallest disparities being observed in the lower reaches. Further analysis shows that the level of economic development is the primary factor influencing the spatial variation of carbon emissions, and the combined effects of population size and industrial agglomeration are the key drivers of the annual growth in carbon emissions.
Published Version
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