Assessing the security status and future scenarios of the Mediterranean region through the water-energy-food nexus

Abstract

Over the past decades, the Mediterranean region has faced significant challenges due to the impacts of climate change and ongoing conflicts. This study proposes an assessment of the region's security status and potential future scenarios through the lens of the water-energy-food nexus, utilising indicators that align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These indicators include agricultural yields, value-added, and land variations, water and sanitation services, income and inequality, use of renewable energy, carbon footprints, and political stability. To evaluate the situation, this analysis applies Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm to group countries based on these indicators, examining the average terms and the years 2006 and 2015 for comparative analysis. Additionally, an exponential smoothing algorithm forecasts future trends and generates clusters for the years 2030 and 2050. By computing an index of convergence for each cluster and indicator, this contribution identifies areas of particular interest from a security perspective. The findings of this analysis reveal a growing polarisation within the Mediterranean region, with European countries and Israel forming one distinct group, and African and Eastern countries (excluding Israel) forming another. Notably, recurring disparities exist in variables such as agricultural land, political stability, violence, income per capita, and agricultural value added. Conversely, certain variables, including the Gini coefficient, prevalence of overweight population, and access to drinking water services, show signs of convergence. These results shed light on potential areas of both conflict and cooperation in the Mediterranean region, highlighting the importance of addressing the challenges posed by climate change. By understanding the geopolitical dynamics and identifying key areas of concern, policymakers can develop informed strategies to promote stability and sustainable development in the region.